Prediction Accuracy

Track Record

How our model performs against real match outcomes and market prices.

643

Total Predictions

all markets

610

Resolved

33 pending

72.1%

Win Rate

440/610 correct

0.196

Brier Score

Good

—

Avg CLV

needs data

Calibration

When we predict X% probability, how often does it actually happen? Perfect calibration = predicted matches actual.

0–10%

no data

10–20%

no data

20–30%

0% (n=187)

30–40%

58% (n=98)

40–50%

43% (n=187)

50–60%

77% (n=138)

60–70%

no data

70–80%

no data

80–90%

no data

90–100%

no data

PredictedActual

Accuracy by Market

Match Winner

71.0% (260/366)

Over/Under 2.5

73.8% (180/244)

Best Calls

Predictions where we found real edge vs the market — and were right.

Mexico vs England

Over 2.5 (Over/Under 2.5)

Model 55.9% vs Market 39.4%

+16.4pp

Mexico vs England

Over 2.5 (Over/Under 2.5)

Model 55.9% vs Market 39.4%

+16.4pp

Mexico vs England

Over 2.5 (Over/Under 2.5)

Model 55.9% vs Market 39.4%

+16.4pp

Mexico vs England

Over 2.5 (Over/Under 2.5)

Model 55.9% vs Market 39.4%

+16.4pp

Mexico vs England

Over 2.5 (Over/Under 2.5)

Model 55.9% vs Market 39.4%

+16.4pp

Mexico vs England

Over 2.5 (Over/Under 2.5)

Model 55.9% vs Market 39.4%

+16.4pp

Mexico vs England

Over 2.5 (Over/Under 2.5)

Model 55.9% vs Market 39.4%

+16.4pp

Mexico vs England

Over 2.5 (Over/Under 2.5)

Model 55.9% vs Market 39.4%

+16.4pp

Worst Misses

High-confidence predictions that didn't come through.

Brazil vs Norway

Norway Win (Match Winner)

Predicted 32.1%MISS

Brazil vs Norway

Norway Win (Match Winner)

Predicted 32.1%MISS

Brazil vs Norway

Norway Win (Match Winner)

Predicted 32.1%MISS

Brazil vs Norway

Norway Win (Match Winner)

Predicted 32.1%MISS

Brazil vs Norway

Norway Win (Match Winner)

Predicted 32.1%MISS

Brazil vs Norway

Norway Win (Match Winner)

Predicted 32.1%MISS

Brazil vs Norway

Norway Win (Match Winner)

Predicted 32.1%MISS

Brazil vs Norway

Norway Win (Match Winner)

Predicted 32.1%MISS

Past performance does not guarantee future accuracy. All probabilities are model estimates.