Why the model chose this outcome

These factors were recorded with the forecast before the game. They describe the model inputs; they are not a guarantee.

• Starters: Nick Martinez (away) vs Max Fried (home)
• Season rates: New York Yankees 4.59 RS/g, 3.73 RA/g (58% win) | Tampa Bay Rays 4.54 RS/g, 4.01 RA/g (61% win)
• Model expected runs: home 3.89, away 2.76 (total 6.65)

What could change the forecast

v2 Markov base-out simulation (PA-by-PA: batter-vs-pitcher log5 blends, base-out states, bullpen innings 7+, extra-innings ghost runner, park/weather on event rates)

This is a probability estimate, not a guaranteed result. Late information can change the forecast.

Result

LOST · 4-3

Official settlement recorded Oct 8, 2026, 3:55 AM UTC. The pregame forecast above was not rewritten.