Public Proof / Settled only
Historical evidence without the live signal
A read-only record of settled model forecasts and parlays. Pending events never count toward these aggregates. Explore the public predictions and individual match receipts on the Predictions board.
DATA SCOPE
Resolved outcomes only
SCORING
Accuracy + Brier
EXCLUDED
Live and actionable data
Individual match receipts
Recent public forecast outcomes
Soccer shows its graded evaluation cohort. Other sports show forecasts published in the last 35 days. These are different cohorts and their counts should not be compared as one total.
The historical frozen ledgers below use separate evaluation cohorts, so their totals may not match the recent receipt cards.
Soccer / recorded evaluations
468
graded selections · 241 wins · 227 misses
Explore the full historical record →MLB
17
settled · 7 wins · 10 losses
Inspect every result →WNBA
5
settled · 4 wins · 1 losses
Inspect every result →Tennis
131
settled · 74 wins · 57 losses
Inspect every result →NFL
16
settled · 9 wins · 6 losses · 1 pushes or voids
Inspect every result →UFC / MMA
28
settled · 10 wins · 18 losses
Inspect every result →Tennis / Frozen ledger
Settled forecast record
SETTLED
1000
WINS
624
MISSES
376
ACCURACY
62.4%
Probability calibration
1000 settled forecasts with a comparable market probability.
0.223
MODEL BRIER
0.223
MARKET BRIER
0.224
Model Brier is 0.001 lower on this sample.
Parlay record
Fully graded frozen slips only.
18.2%
SETTLED
192
HITS
35
MISSES
157
A parlay counts as a hit only when every frozen leg resolves correctly.
MLB / Frozen ledger
Settled forecast record
SETTLED
1738
WINS
942
MISSES
796
ACCURACY
54.2%
Probability calibration
551 settled forecasts with a comparable market probability.
0.241
MODEL BRIER
0.241
MARKET BRIER
0.239
Market Brier is 0.002 lower on this sample.
Parlay record
Fully graded frozen slips only.
35.5%
SETTLED
124
HITS
44
MISSES
80
A parlay counts as a hit only when every frozen leg resolves correctly.
Freeze rule
Forecasts are frozen before the scheduled event starts and are not rewritten after the outcome.
Grade rule
Only officially resolved outcomes count as wins or misses. Pending events are excluded.
Score rule
Accuracy measures direction; Brier score measures probability quality. Lower Brier is better.
Snapshot generated Oct 19, 2026, 8:13 AM UTC
Historical model results are informational and do not guarantee future outcomes. Small samples are preliminary and are shown with their sample size instead of being hidden.