MLB Regular Season · MLB
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox: Seer9 prediction and result
Game time
MLB Regular Season · Oct 9, 12:00 AM UTC
Cleveland GuardiansvsChicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox Win
Model expected runs: home 3.59, away 2.58 (total 6.16)
Starters: Parker Messick (away) vs Hagen Smith (home)
This is a probability estimate, not a guaranteed result. Late information can change the forecast.
Original model version: mlb-markov-v2. The published forecast and evidence cutoff remain on record.
Why the model chose this outcome
These factors were recorded with the forecast before the game. They describe the model inputs; they are not a guarantee.
- Starters: Parker Messick (away) vs Hagen Smith (home)
- Season rates: Chicago White Sox 4.79 RS/g, 4.44 RA/g (52% win) | Cleveland Guardians 4.19 RS/g, 4.12 RA/g (53% win)
- Model expected runs: home 3.59, away 2.58 (total 6.16)
What could change the forecast
v2 Markov base-out simulation (PA-by-PA: batter-vs-pitcher log5 blends, base-out states, bullpen innings 7+, extra-innings ghost runner, park/weather on event rates)
This is a probability estimate, not a guaranteed result. Late information can change the forecast.
Result
LOST · 9-5
Official settlement recorded Oct 9, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC. The pregame forecast above was not rewritten.
Moneyline: Chicago White Sox Win64.0% · lost
Moneyline: Cleveland Guardians Win36.0% · won
1st Inning Run (YRFI/NRFI): Run in 1st Inning28.6% · lost
1st Inning Run (YRFI/NRFI): No Run in 1st Inning71.4% · won