Why the model chose this outcome

These factors were recorded with the forecast before the game. They describe the model inputs; they are not a guarantee.

• Starters: TBD (away) vs TBD (home)
• Season rates: Tampa Bay Rays 4.54 RS/g, 4.01 RA/g (61% win) | Cleveland Guardians 4.19 RS/g, 4.12 RA/g (53% win)
• Model expected runs: home 4.26, away 3.33 (total 7.60)

What could change the forecast

Model confidence is low for this matchup.

v2 Markov base-out simulation (PA-by-PA: batter-vs-pitcher log5 blends, base-out states, bullpen innings 7+, extra-innings ghost runner, park/weather on event rates) — starter data incomplete, confidence reduced

This is a probability estimate, not a guaranteed result. Late information can change the forecast.

Result

WON · 1-3

Official settlement recorded Oct 14, 2026, 3:28 AM UTC. The pregame forecast above was not rewritten.