Why the model chose this outcome

These factors were recorded with the forecast before the game. They describe the model inputs; they are not a guarantee.

• Starters: TBD (away) vs Jacob Misiorowski (home)
• Season rates: Milwaukee Brewers 5.14 RS/g, 3.81 RA/g (64% win) | Tampa Bay Rays 4.54 RS/g, 4.01 RA/g (61% win)
• Model expected runs: home 4.21, away 2.59 (total 6.80)

What could change the forecast

Model confidence is low for this matchup.

v2 Markov base-out simulation (PA-by-PA: batter-vs-pitcher log5 blends, base-out states, bullpen innings 7+, extra-innings ghost runner, park/weather on event rates) — starter data incomplete, confidence reduced

This is a probability estimate, not a guaranteed result. Late information can change the forecast.

Result

WON · 2-3

Official settlement recorded Oct 24, 2026, 3:52 AM UTC. The pregame forecast above was not rewritten.