UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · MMA
Ismael Bonfim vs Francisco Prado: Seer9 prediction and result
Game time
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Oct 10, 9:00 PM UTC
Ismael BonfimvsFrancisco Prado
Ismael Bonfim Win
Opponent-adjusted results from 7 and 6 observed UFC-affiliated bouts.
Dated non-UFC results: 17-3 and 11-0; the pre-UFC signal is shrunk toward neutral.
This is a probability estimate, not a guaranteed result. Late information can change the forecast.
Original model version: mma-career-v2. The published forecast and evidence cutoff remain on record.
Why the model chose this outcome
These factors were recorded with the forecast before the game. They describe the model inputs; they are not a guarantee.
- Opponent-adjusted results from 7 and 6 observed UFC-affiliated bouts.
- Dated non-UFC results: 17-3 and 11-0; the pre-UFC signal is shrunk toward neutral.
- Limited histories are pulled toward an even matchup; inactivity increases uncertainty.
What could change the forecast
Round-level striking and grappling are not in this baseline. Weigh-in, injury and camp information have not been verified.
This is a probability estimate, not a guaranteed result. Late information can change the forecast.
Result
LOST · Francisco Prado won
Official settlement recorded Oct 10, 2026, 11:18 PM UTC. The pregame forecast above was not rewritten.
Fight winner: Ismael Bonfim Win62.0% · lost
Fight winner: Francisco Prado Win38.0% · won