Why the model chose this outcome

These factors were recorded with the forecast before the game. They describe the model inputs; they are not a guarantee.

• Tommy Paul — serve +19 / return +24 vs ATP avg (77 matches)
• Holger Rune — serve +11 / return +11 vs ATP avg (66 matches)
• Serve model on hard: Tommy Paul holds 65% of service points, Holger Rune 61% — best of 3.

What could change the forecast

This is a probability estimate, not a guaranteed result. Late information can change the forecast.

Result

WON · Tommy Paul won

Official settlement recorded Nov 4, 2026, 7:23 AM UTC. The pregame forecast above was not rewritten.